THURSDAY 5 NOVEMBER 2026 – Four of Australia’s leading independent economists have joined forces to issue an unprecedented joint statement on Victoria’s debt, asking every political party contesting the 28 November state election to sign up before Victorians vote.
Released today with AMPLIFY, the statement from Bob Breunig, Saul Eslake, Ian Harper and Richard Holden unites on the seriousness of Victoria’s budget position and how to solve it.
Victoria is Australia’s most indebted state and its finances are in dire need of repair. Net debt is forecast to reach almost $200 billion by 2029-30 and interest is costing Victorians $24 million a day. Interest already takes 1 in 5 dollars of the state’s own tax revenue, rising to 1 in 4 by 2029-30 and potentially 1 in 3 within a decade.
Victoria’s finances won’t be turned around overnight, but the good news is it’s not too late. With political will, this can be fixed.
To repair Victoria’s finances, the economists together with AMPLIFY are calling on all parties to commit to return the budget to cash surplus in the next term of government and within the first 100 days after the election to:
• set a debt cap and medium-term debt target
• initiate a public and independent audit of government spending
• legislate a stronger financial management framework.
Bob Breunig said: “Fiscal rules and frameworks give clarity and predictability to government spending and should help rein in debt. They provide guidelines for policy makers and a benchmark against which excessive government spending can be identified and curtailed. Victoria clearly needs these rules to help restore discipline and balance to their budgetary situation.”
Saul Eslake said: “In order to put Victoria's finances back on a sustainable footing, the next Victorian Government needs to get the budget back into a cash surplus as soon as practicable, ideally by 2029-30. That will in turn require reductions in both 'operating' and capital expenditures, from the levels currently projected. Clearly articulated numerical targets for government spending, revenue and deficits will help ensure the maintenance of the discipline required to achieve a cash surplus.”
Ian Harper said: “As debt grows, so does the cost of financing it. Interest payments on ever higher levels of public debt divert more and more revenue away from funding public services towards the servicing of debt. Setting in place a medium-term strategy for managing public debt secures the future of public services needed to meet the demands of a growing population. Returning the budget to cash surplus is the first leg of this journey.”
Richard Holden said: “If there's an iron-law of public finance it's this: revenues may come and go but spending is forever. Victoria needs a fiscal reset which can only be achieved through an independent audit of government spending and establishing fiscal rules which constitute a commitment to responsible financial management.”
AMPLIFY Executive Director Martin Codina said: “AMPLIFY echoes this call from some of Australia’s leading independent economists and urges Victoria’s political leaders to sign up to the plan before the election. This is the plan Victoria needs to restore confidence and hope in its financial future.”
Read the statement.